Zhao Jin China and the U.S. is not so serious structural contradictions

 Zhao Jin Research Center of Tsinghua University, deputy director of China-US relations


the development of Sino-US relations have plunged into the complex global network, not over-exaggerate the structural contradictions of the U.S. the relationship between negative consequences. Pattern in the network, the more structural contradictions rising Sino-US, Sino-US relations could not do more, both the more cautious approach to their relations.

Sino-US relations in 2010, the twists and turns and turns back to the development of thousands of features is highly subject to economic recovery after the crisis of a weak and vulnerable anxiety. Since taking office, Obama has been chasing the ideal gradually become pragmatic. Mid-term elections, foreign relations, Obama is no longer just the pursuit of unrealistic idealism reform objectives, and to promote recovery, increase exports and reduce unemployment into the priority. Obama deeply appreciate that, in order to achieve five-year goal of doubling exports, in order to stimulate the U.S. economy to recover quickly, increasing employment opportunities, relying on the Fed's policy of quantitative easing is not enough, the United States face an uncertain 2011 of the Chinese people can not do without their support.

no doubt that in this context, President Hu Jintao's visit will be a very solemn political access. Americans visit placed high expectations, hoping that through this visit, so they have more confidence in 2011 and the odds, to completely out of the crisis into trouble and fast track of economic recovery. Obviously, such cooperation will be looking forward to the decision of the 2011 Sino-US relations tone.

, of course, the complexity of the Sino-US relations in 2011 there will be trouble. In particular, China has become the world's second largest economy after the international political arena as the From time to time the release of Specifically, there are three main areas:

First, the Taiwan issue. The signing of the ECFA, cross-strait relations in the short term there will be no major breakthroughs, but also by the ASEAN countries, Japan, Korea and other neighboring countries by the Chinese economy, security, strategic vision by the lure of the United States, the Taiwan authorities would certainly have mere copycat. At the same time, by the election of 2012, the pressure of Taiwan leader Ma Ying-jeou might be the policy in 2011, turn right, from time to time release of cross-strait relations are not conducive to the development of speech, and even some members of Congress in the United States and the instigation of politicians, sought to strengthen Taiwan-US security cooperation, thus challenging the psychological bottom line in mainland China. The voice of the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan may be on the fermentation, in a complex, driven by interests, is not conducive to cross-strait relations and Sino-US relations are the pressure and the risk of a sharp rise in Taiwan-US relations may become the most in 2011 explosive.

Second, human rights issues. Since the Nobel Peace Prize event, the United States, politicians, human rights issues in China, the tone gradually increased, Tibet, Xinjiang, elections, labor rights, multinational corporations in China, freedom of movement and other issues have begun to merge, Google in 2010 The outbreak is a signal event. The visit of President Hu Jintao, the U.S. threatened to expand the US-China human rights dialogue, to put pressure on China. Sino-US differences on human rights issues may be and economic, social, livelihood and even political issues intertwined to form a Sino-US relations of 2011, strong pressure.

Third, intellectual property issues. With the expansion of U.S. exports to China and high-tech products for civilian implementation of the relaxation of export controls, a large number of U.S. high-tech products will be exported to China. However, the U.S. high-tech products, intellectual property rights belonging to U.S. companies, this will inevitably lead to deregulation of U.S. companies to focus on intellectual property issues. In addition, U.S. companies into China in recent years after the issue of intellectual property has long been angry, do not rule out the issue of Sino-US rivalry in the intellectual property, thus the formation of diplomatic stalemate.

, of course, the above-mentioned three major issues Despite the danger, but compared to the United States to achieve the strategic goal of economic recovery, all of these are not strategic, but tactical, not a threat, but to create trouble in the US relations in 2011 will face a lot of trouble, but not cause of Sino-US conflict, the pattern of Sino-US cooperation is expected to be maintained. So, faced with trouble and strife, China must calmly, do not panic, do not yell. Meanwhile, the development of Sino-US relations have plunged into the complex global network, the structural contradictions should not be too exaggerated the negative consequences of the Sino-US relations. Pattern in the network, the more structural contradictions rising Sino-US, Sino-US relations could not do more, both the more cautious approach to their relations. In short, the Sino-US relations is the player in the global system of dispute, China and the U.S. is small, the world is big. As long as the United States calmly, patiently negotiating the future of Sino-US constructive and cooperative relations is promising.