Sounding the red alert of Chinese economy, the U.S. economy barely Rights

 Title too long, on the opening:
Title: sounding the red alert of Chinese economy, the U.S. economy barely Rights mmmmPK famous U.S. investment firm GMO published but must indicate a What a good PK (which should not be called the report, should be called music news analysis, because there simply is no data based on the argument)? to really PK at least logical and convincing conclusion possessed controversial Caixing. The report of GMO neither the technical content, there is no strict logic, and no convincing conclusions. and I, out of its P and K it is a strict logical and persuasive things, it is directly inverted tile cover to the ground, there is no so-called PK. But why should that be PK, is a well-known U.S. investment company called a face, after all, Uncle Sam's well-known investment companies, one of Wall Street giant, one under management more than one hundred billion U.S. dollars in assets. make a inappropriate analogy, for example, Mr. Tyson has come, even if it can tile to cover the previous one can not say, or who still do not think so. As to PK, then we P from the first section of its report, has been its conclusions K to the last.
This report is issued on March 23, April 2 in China, widely reproduced on the Internet. I see only one post feeling: the so-called report of American investment and how this level of organization, their minds spiking upward. but on the other so I surprised that Cipian no logic, the lack of reporting is based on the Chinese media almost got a lot of headlines, and even the majority of users that the insights. This really should be a sentence: The number of people sold the money for it also.
In my view the purpose of this report, the United States is very clear, standing in the national perspective has three purposes: 1, through public opinion, only threatened capital inflow to the booming Chinese economy; 2, to avoid accelerating capital outflows from the U.S. economies; 3, while leading the world's incremental capital inflows to the United States. The report is just the heart of all the contents of the development of contemporary China, the problems do exist ( who develop the problem does not exist, which children grow up not wrestling?), the so-called past experience (this experience is beheaded to the foot) and try to influence China policy, the list of Ecstasy.'s own stand on GMO position, has two purposes: one, for not doing business in China before or misjudgment of China before they justify to shareholders (2008 GMO Chairman had been extremely bullish on the Chinese economy); 2, frequently appeared just to the China looking for business cooperation in space, so that no mistakes go.
which is not very funny but also very contradictory reality? but the logic is very clear before and after the reality, that is in every respect, said that the reports on the GMO is more profitable. But the GMO in the report are not withstand scrutiny of these lists, but can not afford Jiedi. In order for the majority of his comrades to the world economic situation, China's economic situation and the future pattern of changes in the world have a higher level of understanding, The author may wish to on this so-called well-known U.S. investment institutions and K P what about, referred to as PK. recently wrote speculative frenzy and the financial crisis. reported to give the last three centuries the so-called Ten-known characteristics of the bubble.
comrades in order to understand how the resulting economic crisis, the author must be on the economic crisis here as a non-Western vulgar economics Type a brief description, this description and all of Western economics textbooks are essential differences between the vulgar, vulgar Western economics will not do bad things the way it is written in the book.
speculative frenzy, the financial crisis and the economic crisis generated by different mechanisms However, the same source, since the beginning of both endogenous and exogenous.
endogenous: that since the economy itself, the process of development of financial and economic problems caused by reflects the crisis that are generally market inertia and economic restructuring not timely result. For example, the economic structure over a single, once the accident risk-resisting ability is poor will inevitably lead to economic or financial crisis; such as certain areas of over-investment led to serious excess capacity, production capacity can not effectively digest lead to capital can not be healthy liquidity, and ultimately lead to economic or financial crisis; Another example is the need for industrial upgrading, but the delay can not be upgraded (including technology upgrades and capital upgrades), and ultimately suffocated in a level of economic development, when the power level of economic development will inevitably lead to depletion of financial crisis or economic crisis (This is the United States, Japan and other mature economies, one of the causes of crisis). And so on, all the internal situation of capitalism must be the capital of the economic crisis did not form an orderly, healthy flow causing the problem. According to Chinese medicine's view is that a body parts of blood stagnation occurred lesions eventually lead to the outbreak led to siltation. economy, the human body with out a reason.
exogenous: the birth of capitalism, from the day full of plunder and expansion, which is its fundamental nature, this feature can be traced to the early development of capitalism in Spain, Portugal, royal subsidizing navigator voyage. the so-called discovery of the New World are all important in this process, initial results, but also the development of capitalism, the real enlightenment. In this process, the capitalist brutality Wild vividly captures the essence of plunder, that if the location is a powerful country on the adoption of legitimate trade, if it is found unable to resist each other naked plunder becomes even more powerful will the other side of the shift with the ability to keep the two sides predatory mode of profits to be realized. For the Indians it is a defenseless group of predatory, has basically wiped out the Indians in the United States, a gathering place for Indians only minorities; right is the beginning of China through legal trade, adopted after the war plunder. capitalism to the present, this approach has evolved, such as the Plaza Accord on Japan when the looting, plundering of Southeast Asia in 1997 has risen to such a war and plunder by money. This is exogenous source of the crisis, the crisis nature of the main outer side, of course, those who are not looking for preparedness or related systems are imperfect to attack the economic system, this feature before the demise of the nature of capitalism will not change, change can only be is the way. The point of attack the moment the capital is being attacked must find the body where the overall economic imbalances. way too simple, in some way to make this part of capital flows is more of a poor flow of poor, and by external force to the capital in their hands the blood of the attacked party to the rapid injection of these areas, making the blood in certain parts of the capital a tremendous capital of blood pustule. After the rapid expansion of the blood pustule will be deteriorated, while the attacker in the final stages of pumping large amounts of capital out of the blood, the original attack capital will leave with a lot of profits, leaving the shell is being drained of blood.
This is the economic crisis, financial crisis, the fundamental principle that no textbook will be like this, it will say so, but it is bloody reality. With this reality of reality of the logical deduction of capital, then we will look at GMO in this report will look full of loopholes. The I: identification of speculative frenzy and the financial crisis first in the logical put the reader on a priori, a yoke, as long as there is a speculative frenzy of these phenomena and the financial crisis, transcendental logic box live audience. The logic itself is actually very funny, because this is like a fever to cancer, the conclusion must be the same ridiculous. fever only phenomenon, in the end what disease has nothing to do with the fever. The report is part of the first half of her readers to wear the it.
requires the reader to note that the greatest confusion of this report is that it is in front of a list of some very confusing phenomenon, if not break out of these fantasies, you can not see the essence of that. As you readers to be the logic of the logic of this report, were established by a priori conditions in the absurd logic of the logic is very sad. Here the contents of the report analyze one by one.
Section I Article: huge investment in disaster often begins with a compelling growth story.
this one was right on the surface, that under the capitalist rules of the game, any investment must come from a disaster story. so too the appearance of paper, of course not big problems, the New World frequently found it not because of the discoverer of gold and silver jewelry from the New World brought a lot more people and driven sailing adventure? but here said only because, no it's fruit. sailing adventure brought Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands, the small country quickly become a major power in the country, although at the end and not because of over-exploitation of the production lead to asset bubbles burst, but no different man himself. later Britain, France, which is not a repeat of this story, including the United States does not happened to you? Take the research report presented as a revolutionary new technology offers system? in the United States itself with the industrialization and urbanization process is the excess capacity is not the same, the same investment and export-dependent economy? but in the end it completed the accumulation of capital, completed a national urbanization. Besides the recent Internet bubble, the Internet bubble led many investors make huge losses, the Nasdaq market rates led to dream of the Nasdaq index has not had the half. But City Dreams rate for some investors is that disaster, but it is brought to the United States Internet technology, the standard monopoly, the U.S. economy so the number of harvest revenue? bonus this technology is still the pinnacle of the U.S. stand on technology and enjoying the huge benefits of the bonus.
growth story is not terrible, terrible thing is no story, then Africa has developed resources for local people is still no stories to tell. because everyone is interested in contemporary Africa's resources rather than natural resources. The world needs the story, but more needs to understand the story behind a government is monitoring and control, so that makes the story into a hoax and a joke, There is no such control over the final story of the stock market either as a lie, or even most of the proceeds will be really into the pockets of individuals rather than the public. This is the central core of the problem, the key key.
so , GMO in this section, said only a beginning but no that process and the harvest, only said this may lead to bubble burst and risky. It's like that: even if even a day behind the toilet to urinate urinate, so do not altogether urine, so the living people were suffocated in urine; or that people ultimately die, so do not altogether had the ultimate demise of mankind. This absurd logic to appear in the report is ridiculous.
Article: the ability of the blind trust is another typical characteristic enthusiasm.
fact, never been blind confidence of the authorities led to the crisis, but the blind self-confidence led to a crisis. only people regard themselves as only God could command all type will eventually lead to the punishment of God. For individual investors, in fact, one of the most simple truth has been filtered out each of their own people, and that is: their own affairs only to themselves. The reason why the world will have of God, because Some people think that he is God, the result is many people do not think he is crazy but as a really, really the result of God br> It is due to people not God, so most people can not overcome this type of reincarnation of God, and therefore always the outbreak of the crisis. But the crisis is not terrible, terrible is not the story and let the new toad people forget that the crisis re-hope. people, no hope is only fear, so the story how to find new is their fundamental task, but to find a new story is not because the authorities find out, but the story itself there is, it is to avoid the only method of God-style crisis.
Article III: a general increase in investment.
report that blind optimism in the total capital is wasted. This is true because the whole capitalist mode of development itself is a waste, this waste has made the earth barren. But in fact, a model of development can not only to waste it when it began to thrift, so this model will not stop until the human mind and technology ability to obtain new breakthroughs so far. So do not blame this waste, blame blame the capitalist world as a result of development. but as an individual, or to promote conservation.
Article: Corruption is always a huge surge prosperity goes hand in hand.
corruption is a big problem, big enough to affect the operation of a system, because once a thing of corruption adding that the final direction will deviate from the normal track and ultimately sunk in the mire and very natural. But Here I must put forward a new concept.
the moment, almost all of the people on the planet the more backward countries that the more corruption. from the appearance point of view, is correct. because the more the power behind the more focused, more concentrated in minority power , would lead to the abuse of power leading to a more explicit corruption. but I would like to make here is that corruption in fact has already been developed legal and protected by law, and that this corruption was no longer a simple , but the extract. The reason is very simple, if a legal system has the full protection of production, protection of capital, then the more the lower levels, where it may be less protected, and ultimately must be backward countries, but is not able to evolve to this extent. Therefore, developed countries need not do 五十步笑百步 to see the White House on Wall Street Capital predators helpless right, under the umbrella of how good human sense of humor. but a country must undoubtedly be possible to control the impact of corruption on the overall level, otherwise we may make the deviation from the direction of the national system, it is very scary. In fact, the United States must also eventually evolved into the Wall Street loser on Wall Street, average Americans have little binding effect on Wall Street, which will inevitably lead to the entire U.S. economy, the gradual collapse of the currency once the United States, predatory war, for some reason the model is not sustainable , the result can be imagined.
As for China, corruption is already very serious, which is to promote the reform should be to increase the oversight mechanisms important driving force of evolution.
Article V: a fixed exchange rate.
this one before is the fundamental goal of these phenomena listed, is also pave the way set out in front of so many, it is one of the purposes of this report. The report that describes the fixed exchange rate: easy birth and prosperity, but in the end will be the end of the bubble burst. founder of the European Monetary Union, is to overlook this point, he low interest rates and booming property in Spain and Ireland to bring the two small states. fixed exchange rate also caused the 1997 Asian financial crisis. large-scale capital inflows is another important indicator of financial instability. . The U.S. government funds to compensate for the risk of broken chain is likely to continue printing money desperately, desperately printing out if the only way to release only low interest rates, capital costs are too high or who would dare to take it. Therefore, today's dollar interest rate is almost zero. The report describes the first sentence of fixed exchange rates had a huge problem. compared to the world, almost the lowest U.S. interest rates, but why the dollar has never been fixed? Why do the U.S. dollar sharply fluctuations, always continued to depreciate? fixed exchange rate is generated If the premise of low interest rates, then the exchange rate of U.S. dollar so active is how to maintain low interest rates? this incoherently logic can occur in such a large body of the report is really surprising.
behind a fixed exchange rate also caused the 1997 Asian financial crisis is absurd. It can be said, is the exchange rate was liberalized in these countries was a result of the deepening of the crisis was a result of their own economic capital of predators was easy plunder. The same is the economic crisis in 1997 and 2007 Western prescription is the opposite, this is why? Why did the Western economies to the Southeast Asian economic prescription is to subprime crisis triggered by the financial crisis and further lead to the case of the global economic crisis, the West to their prescription is substantial injection of liquidity? an extremely loose monetary policy to deal with?
In fact, the reason is very simple. crisis itself will inevitably lead to some of the funding strand breaks, then if at this time to loose monetary policy on these funds to repair chain, although loose monetary policy itself does not make up for the crisis, but it can dilute the crisis, in order to avoid capital chain continued to expand expand the scale and level. After, by some means to compensate for this vulnerability can be re-economic system normal operation, the crisis would not go on the crisis. Of course, unless this loophole is too large to make up this country can not afford. On the contrary, if taken tightening of monetary policy, the result is accelerated capital chain and scope of the field, and ultimately bound to evolve into more than areas of larger area and more intense crisis. This is why the West in 1997 and 2007, faced with similar conditions out the root cause of the different prescriptions.
In my previous article, has emphasized, there is sufficient capacity to make their currencies gain a firm foothold in the world before the trade, the exchange rate is a sovereign, is the national initiative in the financial sector . Therefore, China can not be completely current free market exchange rate, exchange rate must be relatively fixed exchange rate to the overall control of their own hands. back, once to a certain degree of internationalization of the RMB, which can artificially control the exchange rate converted by means of the market to achieve by controlling the supply of exchange controls, when the portal will no longer be called and called HSBC. by means of market exchange rates under the control of the West in fact the so-called free exchange rate, the moment the United States, European Union, Japan all of these countries to take such measures as their main.
capital continued to flow into China's economic needs, and capital profit-driven nature of it. Therefore, for China is clearly not to prevent the kind of capital inflows, but should consider how a order the use of such capital, capital from these venture capital into long-term investment capital. to change short-term speculative capital for the long-term investment capital in order to lock the capital, the precondition is that there have been new economic growth point, which must have a new story. In a sense, this is the present state should do, those who blindly follow what the West engage in free exchange rate is not an ulterior motive is to be brainwashed. rate of sovereignty must be controlled in their own hands, or those who came outside capital not only for their own use can not, ultimately, into a speculative capital gain, after Italy and fled, leaving the Chinese economy that would be a ground chicken feathers.
Article: crazy credit growth.
Article VII of the report describes it: 80% of the probability lead to a financial crisis.'s recent past half century, studies have shown that the credit boom, Ye Hao, in the final analysis is the loose monetary policy. As China is not as big Wall Street capital markets, monetary policy can only commercial bank credit to the economy released in the body. The United States is different, the United States mainly through capital transfer Wall Street to complete. The fact is that in the current round of crisis, the Fed is printing money than any other country, Wall Street is the release of liquidity the most. According to this logic, the United States can be a lot of printing, the Chinese had better not, because it will affect the U.S. plan. world currency, the Fed more control over monetary policy in the world. can be expected, the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as long as China will certainly follow up, then why the Fed can lay such a good way of China's monetary policy contraction do not have to bend around a large to revalue the yuan or renminbi interest-rate hikes (actually the same thing)? Actually, it is very simple, because if a substantial tightening of monetary policy, the crisis in the U.S. actually do not lift the case (or risk not to pass out circumstances), the result is the collapse of the U.S. economy than the Chinese economy much earlier. That is the key in the key, but also why the United States do not shrink the currency by raising interest rates to liquidity and allow China to shrink the fundamental reason. because once the contraction of liquidity in China, it is like two pools, pool water scarcity in China released by the Fed a lot of capital into China and thus can easily make the Chinese capital market prices continue to rise, eventually the United States can cause a sudden contraction of liquidity and strong dollar thus completing the economies of developing countries in China such plunder.
China and collecting credit is the little, because now is a substantial inflow of foreign capital and the flow of savings funds are the capital market. In this context, although not significantly contraction of liquidity, but still a little close to the appropriate point, and then to speed up the new industry policy guidance, making the funds into China's new industries to these flows should also be gradually increased the intensity of use of capital market financing. This is the key The key to the core of the core. As for monetary policy, it is still the need to control the toy in their hands, the flow.
Article VIII: moral hazard. capital have morals? capital do not believe in moral capital by with a bloody-profit, where there is the slightest moral? moral Indians will not become extinct, not into moral Boxer Rebellion in China. There is no moral issue is not capital, but in person, but tend to indulge in greed among the people, so under the rules of capitalism, people rarely ethical.
IX: financial structure becomes unstable.
This is so described: Minsky found that in boom times, the financial structure becomes unstable. with borrowed money for investment, returns can not repay the loans. (Minsky called more and more vulnerable, even if the event is usually trivial, such as interest rates rise or a small decline in asset prices, will lead to big .20 century, 20 years of highly leveraged investment trust, over the past decade there's subordinated debt CDOs, are is a typical example of a Ponzi scheme. debt ratio for the United States is much lower than the U.S. government to China. like the wrong place. However, the reality of this indeed indirectly illustrates the nature of the U.S. economy mm rising real estate prices.
bubble in housing prices is undoubtedly the biggest risk the economy, the real estate market risk is much greater than the risk. It can be said that if the Japanese economic bubble is not accompanied by a property market bubble burst, the Japanese economy are they will not suffer such a big hit. U.S. economy is not suffering if not the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis, the economic vulnerability will not be so large. Therefore, the property bubble burst bubble burst in the capital market than the much more serious. the capital market bubble rupture at most affect the financing capability of companies to expand production. but a direct result of the property market bubble will burst is that many industries will therefore lead to poor sales, companies can not operate, and that great harm on the economy would be inconceivable.
so In a sense, the moment the property market in China is indeed a sustainable economic development of China's largest tumor. the healthy development of the industry from the fundamental need to control countries, where the housing market, including countries to increase supply to be balanced, so the Chinese housing policy the need for change.
to see Beijing, Shanghai, these cities are still in this year Shangcuan prices, relative to the other that is the most terrible thing. and a second housing reform, is likely to involve reform This is a great article, but this great article has to be for the time.
for this article, China must step up control efforts, accelerate the reform of the real estate market, I am afraid this is to avoid the next round will be currency-style economic crisis occurred before the onset of internal problems to be solved. Otherwise, I am afraid of China in the next round of crisis in the not so calm.
GMO Section II of the report: China's condemnation.
the first Section II: Dream of China.
report, the first the anticipated may be overestimated; 2, the Chinese labor force growth may be overestimated, in 2015 China's new labor force will decline; 3, China's wage growth will increase the cost of Chinese labor, thus affecting the international competitiveness of China.
First, the reports lack the three most fundamental data support, no data can be called the report the report is absurd. Thus, it is reported that in fact can not be called the report, at most, a longer considered news analysis only, and is a flawed analysis of news.
report for the so-called core point of the three so-called one by one we see.
1, China's urbanization, population figures may be underestimated, thus bringing the process of urbanization The development is expected to be overestimated. This is the report's conclusions. This report was apparently to strengthen the population in the labor force, it is ironic that there is not even mentioned can do for technology upgrades to improve the per capita productivity brought about by the significant increase in overall productivity . China, making China the whole technology behind the overall technology upgrade brings increased productivity per capita will increase production efficiency, in other words, China's per capita productivity, there is still much room for improvement. not to mention the influx of China's new labor force is constantly city, even if this process stops the current productivity gains in China still have a lot of space, which is brought about by the upgrading of industrial technology. Moreover, Chinese born in the eighties and nineties who are entering the labor market. The In fact, China's statistics on groups of people are conservative, because China is a significant effect of family planning in the city, but rural areas due to Students will continue to go to the boys, so far more than three children, the family still abound. This may not show all foreign reports, but the reality is that as long as Chinese people lived in rural areas are very clear. Therefore, China the population of Chinese farmers, Chinese farmers would say: 十四亿 certainly less statistics, the estimate was half billion or more. That is because they live in reality, the children teen newspaper accounts is a common occurrence. born in the eighties and nineties in China, and many of these workers, and this phase of the population base is the number of brothers and sisters in the previous generation are done on the base of people. China's new labor force is still not reduce the short term. It must be noted is that after two thousand years in the late nineties to new labor force is declining, which is why the family planning policy in recent years been frequently discussed whether it should adjust the root causes. According to current estimates related to the data released by China from 2025 to 2030 will usher in a new reversal of the labor force.
this report in order to prove the sustainability of China's labor force growth does not cover the two realities: one is technological innovation led to a substantial increase in per capita efficiency technologies in China is still relatively backward economies larger space; the other is seriously underestimated the increase in China's new labor force.
2, the first has been described in detail, not repeat them here.
3, China's wage growth will increase China's labor costs, thus affecting China's international competitiveness. Yes, wage growth will increase costs, but before the Chinese economy is too dependent on investment and exports, the largest of China's economy is a huge population of the hidden treasure of great consumption potential, and this is China the future development of the economy and great potential for huge space. wage increase will bring huge population base of major increases in spending power, the economy will continue its rapid development, this is lies. If according to this logic, the U.S. consumption accounts for GDP70% or more, has long been list of countries in the crash can be maintained in this process the United States more than we know how long the GMO. And, even more absurd is that, even if it is a before and after the conflict itself, and contradictory purpose is to prove himself right, This is clearly the right to own and doing their utmost, it is also the report that the water looked great.
Article: We believe that the Chinese government.
use it to cover up China's development of a space obviously some totally unrelated. because economic development is not the policy of having the final say, as human life is not like the people themselves have the final say (unless suicide, but the economic possibility of suicide is low, unless misguided policies .) about the economy is the most critical stage of development of the economy itself, and at this stage in the Government's ability to develop appropriate policies to facilitate this stage of development. exaggerated the role of government is to regard themselves as God, and in fact they are fundamentally impossible to a command economy of God. things into the development, housing, bad, off the cycle, as the government can do is to make it into the process of living more reasonable bad off.
before the Chinese economy and the collapse of the Japanese economy obviously not comparable, in terms of market depth on the population base, industrial technology, the potential labor force, and various resources on the abundance of non-Japanese are fundamentally comparable. Moreover, in the late eighties revenue growth in Japan has come to the top , due to the completion of industrialization and urbanization has led to the stagnation of economic growth in space. At this point, Japan has accepted the Plaza Accord led to a sudden rise in asset price bubbles, and ultimately the real economy can not support the capital market bubble burst leading to large capital outflows . China is not, on the one hand did not complete the process of industrialization and urbanization as well as a long distance, the income is much room for growth, in this case, as long as China policy properly, adjusted properly, the Chinese economy continued rapid development of three decades is not a myth. China's economy is no template to the template, because no economy ever had 十四亿 of the population, no country has such a huge market space. Therefore, the Chinese economy has not analog resistance. The only risk is that China's economy two points: 1, destroyed the policy shall not be treated in their own hands, such as real estate bubble to be blown too large; 2, the external non-peaceful means to interrupt the development of China. Apart from these two outside forces, no force can break a huge market for China, a country with Barack Obama the next five years to double the U.S. manufacturer's dreams in China and had had nothing to say?
Article: Investment boom.
any economy in the development process is accompanied by investment boom, which is inevitable process. the United States from the eighteenth century after a war is it not so? make Europe the U.S. gold rush large numbers of people migrating to the United States. Therefore, investment is not terrible, terrible thing is not something that can be invested. Of course, the overheated investment will result in siltation of capital from ...