Summit Economic Forum Dialogue Lang Lang Professor
very happy to talk about the economic situation in Ningbo and leadership issues! We can hear? Or hear it?! That I would slightly Louder! Today I want to talk about the topic and the lives you! just mentioned to my introduction to Professor Lang remarks very critical, there is a word, the accuracy is more important, who will not curse it?! If you concerned about my speech, you will find that since last year, has come to today, China's economic trends, the rhythm is almost as I change, including the stock market! even the property market, it is not I have the foresight, but I After a large amount of data research, I have come to an inevitable conclusion. I remember the early to mid stages of last year, Shenzhen's real estate market is very hot, when media reported that people have more confidence in our economic development, and more successful regional economic development in Shenzhen, so will be hot property in Shenzhen. you remember I had the answer? I was wrong, so the hot real estate in Shenzhen Shenzhen's economic development because of more recession! is because the entrepreneur do not want done. So they should invest the money in the enterprise, not investment, and out speculation, so housing prices in all regions of China due to the economy worse, rather than better! I say this, then At that time many people oppose, or even understand! to this day in January, data released completely proves our point of view, the closure of enterprises in Shenzhen ranks first in the country almost.
that many entrepreneurs in the business process They found that the investment they face rapidly deteriorating business environment, so he did not want to do business, and do? to stock speculation! This is caused by the Guangdong region, the main cause of rising real estate prices.
is also the first few months, and I said, the area downtown real estate prices remain strong, while the price of housing will decline in value in the vicinity of, cause? money out of these companies do not do industrial, and investment is certainly buy a house. Why did the price will fall ? Because macro-control, people who really want to afford housing. before the month of Shanghai real estate trend is the high school cheap real estate around the corner! but I think 高价房 still strong, the low down. high-priced real estate still strong, will be strong for how long? he will see the movement of entrepreneurs, rather than watching the movements of the economy, look at his capital flows, to which side to go, recent economic trends in a mess, and even real estate management policy for the future were divided and even government agencies have called for foreigners carry out his call for an open real estate, real estate more money to help, because if real estate prices plunge, it certainly lead to more serious financial crisis, the impact of the financial crisis, the entire the complexity of China's economic anomaly.
Today, I wanted this opportunity, and you talk in such a complex economic environment, entrepreneurs, how to understand the Chinese economy, but also in the last year, I told a business home, if you feel that life is more difficult in 2007, then 08 days will be pain. I'm talking about is the fact that some of this year worse than last year, in 2005 net profit margin of China's manufacturing industry there are about 10% 5% 06 , 2% 07, 08 should be negative, negative net profit margin should be, 09 years? be worse! This is what I give you a fixed future! why I have such a decision, because our manufacturing industry is facing unprecedented in the history of the reform and opening up the unique experience of the flute section. This phenomenon is worthy of serious attention to all of you entrepreneurs.
I want to talk to you about the topic you are most concerned about, you think there is of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces may engage in high-tech? Do you think your future is it? You tell me. So in the beginning of today's speech, I raised so many questions, I wanted to use my findings, to string together all of these phenomena, but also One of the most concern is the stock market problem, which is in Beijing late last year, someone asked me how to get the stock market, I have followed my how to get economic theory, not have to go up, of course, many people throw away too smart, Why is there such a judge, I think through today's speech to string together all of these phenomena. these two days, many scholars continue to speak on behalf of the Crown, of course, I think their statement is wrong. Many enterprises are facing difficulties how to do it? is the nature of macroeconomic regulation and control across the board it!? you know what that mean? is far from the end of last year to bring macro-control policy is basically a major crisis, the words I said two years ago, and unfortunately I all words in talking about, and what kind of crisis, please think! you think that today's Chinese enterprises are overheating it?! If Chinese enterprises overheating, how your day is so depressing?! even for the manufacturing sector entrepreneurs, you feel the letter of the flute section and not overheating.
So why the Government is overheating, even the use of such a great channel to control inflation. This month, we are a small country in Asia Vietnam, there was a serious financial crisis, and the fuse on the time and space from the national inflation, inflation as high as 25%, ordinary people see the continued devaluation of the Vietnamese currency, they exchange dollars for euros, the currency for other countries , even for gold. in the end found that very difficult for U.S. dollars, or you changed, how should we do? started buying a lot of hoarding goods, hoping to hedge against inflation. Vietnamese banks are unwilling to do the local representative of the real estate purchase, do not want to to do with the Vietnamese currency, fearing devaluation. the impact of this phenomenon makes our government more determined to carry out macro-control. because our government believes that China's problems today is the excess liquidity.
you might ask me what excess liquidity. Simply put, excess liquidity is too much money in your hands! your hands after more money, buy a building to cause the housing bubble, you buy a stock and causing the stock market bubble, to cause you to buy products inflation. So you use the excess liquidity that reason can explain all the phenomena seen at present, including last year's property market bubble, the stock market bubble, and inflation, so our macro-control is a continuation of the past four years, has been tightening policy up to today.
you confused in 2007, because the property market bubble, the stock market bubble, inflation, the money you can too simple to explain, but this year, you can not see the housing bubble, and you worried that the property market To decline, the stock market not to talk about it. stock market crash, 2700 points, 2800 points, but also likely to decline. It is the excess liquidity it?! inflation, there is indeed, perhaps even more serious! oil 93 days ago Prices rose more than 6 about a liter, you have to think up enough, all of you gentlemen know do not know how much money the oil 93 in Hong Kong? is twenty blocks. comrades, can you imagine, if we rise to the oil What is the point of horrors! you have to do with excess liquidity to explain it? phenomenon of the current economic theory has given way to excess liquidity bankrupt!
end of last year and I accept the Southern People Weekly interview, these many of his Introduction, when the country experts and government officials believe that the stock market bubble housing bubble inflation is caused when excess liquidity, said Professor Lang is not! If Professor Lang is right, the country is wrong! to June 2008, Sorry to tell you! are all wrong! I was right! otherwise you would not take the time to listen to my speech!
Why? cause of this phenomenon today, I told you about, the reasons for this phenomenon today faced by the manufacturing environment for business investments from 05, 06 caused by the deterioration began to speed. So why the share price rose in 2006, not because the share reform success, the inevitable failure of stock changed my sense of financial programs in 05 very clear, the share reform will fail! to 2008 we only know that I am talking about is, why 2006 rose it? not share reform success! but what? but an investment business of environmental degradation, so that entrepreneurs give up investment opportunity to invest the money that should be out of stock, causing shares to rise, we therefore start from the 06 to smell the taste of economic flute section, rather than economic overheating, and this is my theory!
why many experts and scholars diagnosis, said that today's Chinese economy is overheating? I tell you, it is because local governments and relevant departments to promote the GDP basic thermal engineering, for example, 07 real estate, steel, cement, performance engineering, image engineering, financing, banking, etc. These sector is hot, why heat, because the local government to promote the GDP project, it overheated it! This is 20m30%, other 70m80% of the private economy sector is basically too cold. In other words, today's Chinese economy is unique in the world , a unique dual economic environment, we are also hot, and cold, and the government departments concerned overheating, the relevant departments of private enterprises is essential too cold. why in June of this year, the economic situation began to rapidly deteriorate? is generated macro-control a series of problems. you think about the following in the dual economy, government austerity drive is the result? such as raising interest rates, raise the reserve ratio, on what is against dual economy, this macro adjustment on the flow surplus is helpful, but today the problem is not excess liquidity, the goal is wrong!
If the target wrong, the real problem is in the dual economic environment, you push it kinds of control transfer of excess liquidity is what the results of the macro, you can hit the three pipe thoroughly to all entrepreneurs. The first pipeline is the bank, from the cold a lot of private corporate sector to recover the funds, local governments continue to call overheating in local infrastructure, which is why the austerity years down the growth rate of broad money is still in 18% of the high level of money supply so much why do not enjoy the benefits all entrepreneurs? Because the money from you through the banking system hand back more money to local authorities in local development, and that the department so cold colder, so that overheating of the sector more heat.
second pipe is cold in the private sector entrepreneurs He faces what environment? rising interest rates, bank deposit reserve ratio rise, the exchange rate rise, there is the labor contract law, and here I want to be a statement, the labor contract law itself, its meaning is significant, I believe that the country people including entrepreneurs and laborers, for the essential meaning of the labor contract law would agree. The problem is so significant statutory, there is not even discussed argument, more seriously, without any pilot to full launch. the statutory good statutory, rush impetus, a further blow to the business environment for investment in manufacturing. coupled with the rising exchange rate, macro adjustment, exchange rate, the labor contract law, among other factors, so that these entrepreneurs in the manufacturing sector had longer cold do not dry up, and let him down profit margins year after year, he does not want to do, so put a lot of investment money should not invest in, and out from the cold sector, the sector went into the overheated stock market speculation, which is the share price began rising in 2006, also in 2006 the main reason housing prices began, it is because in binary economic environment, a large number of cold-sector funding into the sector caused by overheating, is not excess liquidity.
The third pipeline, the phenomenon I call Haier, Haier own shop and go to raise 1.5 million real estate fund, said it was a lot of media strategy for a new start Haier, and I said no, it was not a dry Haier, his cold appliance manufacturing sector to do, he did not go on, like Haier that the manufacturing sector began to take back a lot of money into the overheated sectors, dry developers, because the industry does not go dry!
First Bank operation of the entrepreneur's own handling of the second, the third operation of such enterprises as Haier, making money from the flow of cooling the overheated manufacturing sector continued to go, resulting in a serious financial reversal, which is why the four macro tone it down, it will fail, because the department is too cold, due to the loss of funds has become colder, more flute section, this is your current situation, the overheated sectors, due to receiving a lot of money, including real estate, and thus more inflation. So dual economy is the result? dual economy under the impact of the austerity, the department will make too cold colder, hotter overheated sectors.
In fact, I believe I talked about here you are able to understand what to such a thing.
I told you about an economic issue, that is, the austerity wrong? austerity itself is not wrong. The problem is, many of us are not always thorough study, as We are currently implementing austerity policies in the United States read a freshman textbook policy is first-year macroeconomics American universities, our policy is to that level. Why is this policy effective in the United States, China has no fruit in it?! because the U.S. is a dollar economy, China is a dual economy.
believe that many have read the macroeconomics, I want to tell you that the soul macroeconomics dollar economy, otherwise failure, what is a dollar economy, for Quanguo to overheating overheating cold cold country, in this case to raise interest rates, raise bank reserve ratio to effective. China is a dual economy, you raise interest rates, raising the deposit reserve ratio is bound to make the overheated sector more heat, which had cold sector colder, it's that simple.
I was in favor of the government to control inflation, because the example of Vietnam, inflation is very scary, but you have to control inflation, first you have to understand that inflation is how come, my request is not much! If you understand the causes of inflation in China, again dealing with inflation, you will not feel a bit better then? do not you think this is right.
We are simply the view that our society too much money to buy something, anything to price increases, thereby increasing the interest rate and reserve ratio back to put the community resources that can restrain inflation it! are you ? so simple you?! so simple I'm not used to the lecture! Last night I came from Shanghai, in the eight, when I want to buy the fruit after dinner, to buy cherries, I asked fifty dollars a pound, I was scared to jump, I do not dare to buy, I bought an orange. Lang Professor Hunde can, you can not afford it?! not, last time I asked him if he is 12, this time for five ten. I asked him how much the U.S. imports? He is 138, I only bought two oranges out! not afford to eat out!
and just eat with the media, journalists saw my first words Professor Lang, you lost. I said, so he said why. I said, your pork, and I took the opportunity to lose weight.
you think the price of pork rose, cherry prices, oil prices, because you the hands of the money too much?! you understand economics, you do not talk about economic theory, you can understand a people talk it out on the right. pork prices, is because you are too much money , if you have more money, you will go to buying pork?! even rice prices is excess liquidity, do not you had enough money to eat Wu Wan to it?! you ass to think, you know excess liquidity is nonsense. people can there be, hands the money may eat rice it?! It can not and can not buy meat, not to buy a cherry, there may be speculation stock! our food prices the amount of 22% according to the official announcement, pork 76%, in fact, higher than this. Food prices rose so fast, I can tell you, you can find any reason, do not talk too much money on hand because everyone, impossible, the rich people do not eat two bowls of rice that he might buy a luxury, might buy a LV bag, food prices, so another job of excess liquidity proved to be wrong. So why do so many up ?! we should start speaking from the dual economy.
inside the dual economy, expansion of the sector is overheated sectors, so the price increase, which can be understood. So, you think, too cold to fall you departmental ? not. too cold sector prices rose even more, whether it is overheated prices are rising too cold, and pork, cherries are the product of cold sector. how the price of pork rose, with the cherry is the same reason very simple, that is, Professor Lang's theory, private entrepreneurs raising pork is the same with you, but you create something else, he made pigs are almost the same, his face rapidly deteriorating business environment for investment, what is imported feed prices rose, and swine plague, which makes their environmental degradation, according to my theory of how he would do, he would not give pig a pig to invest the money should not vote, and went to the stock market speculation So today's issues, rural pig farmers pork from suppliers over the past into today's pork consumers, simple as that. That is, when after you kill pigs, and you find no follow-pigs, So to reward the government say that you two hundred pigs, raise dead if you're not careful the government to give you five hundred of the funeral, but we still do not care? Why, because they can not make up for deterioration in the business environment brought about loss.
Why so expensive soybean oil, and cherry Why so expensive, this is the second reason of inflation, the first reason for speaking clearly, is the dual economy, the overheated sector due to overheated prices , cold sector due to cold, lack of production, prices according to inflation. there is a more serious problem that the world is facing a national all international inflation. and this allows us to import international inflation as high as 138 Cherry, This allows you to eat imported inflation, oil prices rose, the latest hot news this month because of the international rice price is too high, too low, the price of rice in Guangdong, China, there have been massive smuggling, is the opposite of smuggling of rice sold to the Chinese abroad, times have changed so fast. previous Guangdong smuggling is go inside, now go out, we subsidize our petrol price is too low around the world to use our oil, the world's aircraft fly to China to fill up and then fly back out, Hong Kong's oil is a liter of twenty pieces, we are six, the Hong Kong to Shenzhen refueling truck, and I suspect he is the container tank, because this is too profitable ! I want to disrupt. you think about it, if I use the ten thousand day today, the price to rent a truck, I added the oil over six dollars, I returned to Hong Kong can earn money three times . more pay any ah! then this is how the international oil prices, the price rise is how come? the current three months, is concentrated practice, practice at home, out of clear, today I was the first time to Ningbo entrepreneurs speaking, as long as you understand it! you are the most outstanding economist, can not solve all problems though, the purpose of today, I let all of you die plainly!
importing inflation too interesting, I'll give you a data, the recent oil price rose to $ 135 a barrel, soaring rice prices, according to economic theory is wrong! However, many economists considered dead only reason I do not know how one thing! I'll give you a data you understand, demand for oil is 8600 barrels per day of oil supply is 8700 million barrels a day, it is understood that the oversupply!
oversupply prices should fall, but do not fall but rise . the four major agricultural products (000061, stock it) of the current storage capacity is 146 million tons of international and consumption was 1.32 million tons, significantly greater than consumption of storage capacity, but also supply exceeds demand, but rising prices of agricultural products or that the international caused speculators, and this is the first time, have not happened. a lot of people to invite foreign country people speech, many of which are his pawn, do the lobbyists. you think about what is their highest strategic guidelines do not know why I'm here more pleasant mood, I'll tell you their operating practices, OK?
that Lang's true secrets, because I was out and out capitalist economist, I know them too which sets. You think about it, the world's stock markets are not very good, world prices are erratic, too high price of gold speculation, so how these international speculators, he was prepared to do, I urge you to stand on their point of view look at the problem, do not stand on your own point of view, the stock is not good speculation, the building is not good fried, gold is not good you can stir fry it? to the remaining supplies of oil and the general public, iron ore, copper can be fried , but you can only fry futures speculation, the international financial futures speculators can only be speculation, I advise you do not ladies and gentlemen, futures speculation, because you lack below this level. success or failure of futures to speculation, there is a necessary principle, that is, economic fundamentals must meet the direction of your speculation, such as gasoline today, I bet this will go up today, you will be sure someone is bound to buy this thing, for example, do you think the rice will go up, then you must make sure there must be a fool Great country to buy this rice. You have to be to control the fundamentals futures speculation, or fail basic.
we look at how they think the problem. suddenly saw the Chinese, you know the effect of China How much? We did the price of oil rose by 13%, and the world price of oil futures market dropped the day all of a sudden, because the Chinese people to buy something, what prices, because the Chinese are too many people to the international financial speculators standpoint, the Chinese people to buy something, anything on the rose, is not that the fundamentals do? So what the Chinese government to buy before you buy, such as the Scoop from one hundred three hundred, and then sold to The Government, he earned two hundred dollars, producers do not make money, we burned, and this is a conspiracy of international financial speculators. selected varieties, because you have to determine your pricing, first he picked to rice. Why is the rice? I you learned about this incredibly large, I am the person is stupid Yeah, I know of three months. Why did you choose rice, too important. like to learn a move it?! Why not wheat, why choose rice, without selection of wheat, which is the level ah?!
】 【audience: Chinese people like to eat rice.
】 【Professor Lang: like to eat rice is poor and backward country, and these countries than to eat wheat, compared to countries in general are relatively poor. these poor countries, people eat rice, if not buy rice, how to do? very simple to starve to death, you will not need suspicion. starve how to do it? hungry Death to starve to death! so pushed up the price of rice after one of these countries the Government to immediately eat the rice crisis facing the fall, a rise in rice prices, governments to cooperate with the international speculators, like Vietnam, like, let rice exports, why ? First ensure that their people from starving to death, starved to death because of a government collapse, the Asian rice producing countries keep these rice exports, and if you do not let what is the result of rice exporting it? prices are more up. those poor countries, for example, he can not buy rice, the Philippines, and international speculators to be so powerful, one pushed up the price of rice, governments in order to preserve the stability of the regime does not export rice, Vietnam does not export higher prices, poorer countries to buy no rice, no money, the inevitable result that these countries do not produce rice, some people will starve to death, once reached such a day, these poor countries will do their utmost strength, Zaguomaitie everywhere to borrow money Ye Hao, He did all attend to, he can only do what can only be to the international market with such a high price to buy rice, in order to prevent their own people starve to death. If all the countries are to this logic, fear of people starved to death , the government fell in all countries, the export of rice is not the case, international speculators have to accept the highest price, as long as a government to buy, this price is the market price. Do you understand? like you, like stocks, closing today What is the price of price of, say, two in price is 13, why? because someone in the 13 transactions, 12 transactions is 12, which is the market price. Therefore, these poor countries, the Government had to beg someone, Zaguomaitie circumstances, raise a little money so long as the one in the international market to buy rice, the highest price that the market price of rice. In this moment you know do not know what happened? it is the pricing power of rice both supply and demand decisions from the past, into the pricing of the international financial speculators to form the final pricing of the international financial speculators.
Gao Bugao means you say?! as speculators into the final pricing of the international, so the supply is not important World rice surplus, oil surplus, but the price is determined by the international financial speculators, he said a few pieces of money is a few dollars. they get someone to let it rise in oil prices should be 140, he said, rose up to because the international financial speculators have control of the international pricing of bulk products.
original soybean in Northeast China is the best, and now the United States came in soybeans, soybean his better than the Chinese, as he out there than our high 23%, and the price is cheaper than us, because soybean oil prices on the cheap, so cheap soybean oil, other edible oils are also cheaper. Who will be the price that it? set by international speculators, so we are forced Prices had to rise?!
I tell you, I tell them that you feel Oh, very simple, are able to understand. If I do not speak, how do you think, this is powerful international speculators, and I put his logical analysis to tell you clearly. For example, Rogers promised six months ago, we want to buy agricultural products, and why? completely pave the way for the plot, he talk about, what will rise. This is the powerful international financial speculators. you listen to my speech Where will feel very sad. Are you sure that we can not sit still, what we have to what other countries combined, we have to defeat the international financial speculators. Are you trying to ask this question, or you do not care. should not defeat the international financial speculators, or not?!
】 【audience: to!
】 【Professor Lang: Did you think of a problem, we have inspiration, we join together to crush a few countries the international financial speculators, OK?
【audience】: Good!
】 【Professor Lang: You know what would happen, we were defeated by him. because the international financial speculators have never failed, because today we have never experienced war is a financial war. And you want to win this battle, only two important principles, first you have to have the most abundant international capital Chong; the second you must have a master of the world's top financial operations. I threw these two premises here , you think you have you?
we only have the first full international capital, the second with it?!
】 【audience: You do not have?!
【Professor Lang 】: China's 1.3 billion people, including myself, do not have. because I only know the theory, I have not personally wield the sword.
】 【audience: try do?
】 【Professor Lang : You can not try, try to fail! Japan 90 years who caused the collapse of Japan, international speculators. Vietnamese who caused the economic crisis, and international speculators. are able to understand it. international speculators can easily spend hundreds of billions of funds to defeat the international the central bank.
】 【Professor Lang: how to do? I do not know how to do, a lot of people just shout at me, you just talk about a problem, you do not solve the problem. Comrades, I'm just a self-employed, I can solve any problem it! I heard friends call me, I get angry, I'm just a little professor I have no right, I solve any question?! I am very pessimistic, mingled now nothing, what can not solve. me today spoke with the media at noon, my life goals changed, do not want to be a professor, not of financial speculators, completed high school last wish, converted a star, my biggest goal in life is to participate in next year's Spring Festival Gala, by me Zhao replaced by a comedy play good or bad?
you think about it, today's inflation is a dual economic environment and international import inflation, distorted body of collusion with the two forces, I ask how this is up excess liquidity ?! You just understand my speech today, you fully understand why cooking oil, rice prices, pork prices rose, with the dual economy that is caused by imported inflation.
if you do not mind I want to tell you a story. South Korean president to imports of U.S. beef, we all know do not know why so excited to be the impact of South Korea South Korean Government?! you think Korea is aggressive? I tell you, more clever Koreans much he learned from the Asian financial crisis, a lot of experience that once the success of South Korean imports of U.S. beef after the cheap U.S. beef in particular, he will sweep the entire South Korean beef households, households out of the cattle in Korea, in the end, South Korea beef prices will be controlled by the international financial speculators! So I personally think that the South Korean people against the government imported beef is a reason, because only their own production, we will not be controlled by others, that simple!
are able to understand it? Why do we lower the price of rice, its production. Why are oil prices can also carry it because of our own oil. but also carry long, because the cause a lot of waste, a lot of people because oil cheaper to drive, this is a burden. I Today, through such a long period before the speech, the people used to think that the concept of excess liquidity completely destroyed, you find that rising prices, stock prices but also because dual economy, is worsening business environment for investors, entrepreneurs do not done, caused stocks to speculation, inflation is caused by the dual economy, overheated sectors have expanded, less cooling there must be expansion of the production sector to cherry, for example, the dual economic structure not only the problem of also imported inflation. This is today the business environment in which the investment.
side-tracked following a theme to all of you, then how do we do? off fifteen minutes to tell you how to do.
】 【Moderator: Thank you, Professor Lang excellent speech! are trotted into the Yangtze River Delta, Ningbo towards globalization, and its dream of wealth is in need of such scholars as Professor Lang for advice. enhance the core competitiveness of Ningbo city ability to meet the needs of the city's overall business needs such as the Green City Green Park Building to be carrying commercial buildings.
good, ladies and gentlemen! our forum here on the first half, followed by midfielder Coffee Break We sponsor of the Forum reported wave Zhejiang Greentown Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. have prepared a fine snacks and tea, please enjoy. We continue to listen to 20 minutes for the second half of the lecture, Professor Lang.
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