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real estate: house prices are still higher than expected majority still choose to wait and see (AJ Securities left Hongying)
Investment Highlights: < br>
last week, the real estate sector index was up 0.74%, slightly worse than the broader market
situation of the regional property market transactions
Bohai Rim region: chain volume declined last week, up is still substantial growth;
East China: Last week in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, there are up the chain, which rose less than in Shanghai Central, Hangzhou, Nanjing, the city rose more than 1 chain; the three major cities continue to grow year on year, Shanghai obviously slowed down. Prices, Hangzhou last week rose more than 1 into the chain.
central region: Wuhan and Changsha chain volume decreased, remained significantly year on year growth; Wuhan chain average turnover declined slightly, down more than 1 into; Changsha, the average transaction price rose more than 1 into the ring , an increase of 17.15%.
West: Chongqing and Xian Jin Yicheng chain volume decline, is still substantial growth year on year; chain average grew slightly in the transaction.
South China: Shenzhen and Xiamen, chain volume continued to decline, is still substantial growth year on year; Shenzhen average turnover, decreased 8.62%, down 14.44%; Xiamen chain average turnover growth of 6.91%, down more than 3 percent.
news last week, two sets of Beijing and Shanghai Bank quietly relax the mortgage, several sets of high-quality customer first home buyers are given the same preferential policies. This led to some investment demand into the market. The Shanghai second-hand housing index is up 8 个月来首次 there, downtown housing prices also rose. The exhibitions will be from Shanghai, the news second-hand, purchase prices generally reflect is still higher than expected, most home buyers still choose to wait and see. From the National Bureau of Statistics data, the national home sales this year in March year on year prices are still declining.
maintain the industry passenger growth and higher prices area, a likely-than-expected quarterly results
one hand, the price of all sectors of the tourism industry chain has a larger decline in 2008, suppressed the release of the tourist demand, as well as China's economy maintained relatively fast growth, the domestic consumption structure is still in phase of domestic residents more optimistic about the future expectations and other factors, the rapid recovery in the first quarter passenger traffic; other scenic spots in 2008,2009 class ticket and cable prices have increased. Both price and demand increase will lead to an area a quarter to maintain growth. Hotel industry: the occupancy rate and average room rates are low, a quarterly performance is not optimistic in Beijing, Shanghai Tourism Bureau data, in January 2009, 1-2 star hotel operating conditions difficult. March 1-2, 2009, Shanghai-star hotel Revpar to 215.98 yuan, down 29.21%, Beijing-star hotel Revpar to 167.32 yuan, down 27.50%. This will inevitably lead to Q1 2009, the hotel industry the main business year on year decline.
investment advice
area industry (buy): the recovery phase in the industry, benefit from the scenic spot ticket / passenger facilities, prices and recovery, performance will be increased substantially, a likely-than-expected quarterly results .
from the beginning to now, tourism, multi-class company is a theme among the biggest gainers of the company, the better fundamentals of such companies rose a relatively small area. With the improved valuation industry as a whole, scenic class companies have the possibility of compensatory growth.
facilities we recommend buying a scenic Mount Emei and the expected price increases Tourism. Lijiang Huangshan Travel and Tourism to maintain a
hotel industry (hold): The hotel industry as a whole is still in oversupply phase, as demand has gradually stabilized, some cities are expected room occupancy rate may lead gradually picked up, but because of intense competition in the industry, the average prices may require a longer recovery time course.
from the latest data, a quarter of the hotel industry occupancy rate and average room rates are low status, the hotel category of listed companies in the first quarter year on year decline in the basic core business is a foregone conclusion, quarterly a of small.
We recommend that investors have a certain margin of safety concerns the subject of investment opportunities, purchase a key recommendation of Risk Warning
Tourism Bureau statistical data and specific data of the area consistent diameter, resulting in the deviation of our judgments.
tourism sector back to a higher level of valuation,UGG boots clearance, valuation of a certain pressure.
power industry: the industry of the world's fast-growing Chinese companies (GF Securities Zhang Xiaodong)
recently, we participated in the March 30, 2009 -4 1 the fourth held in Shanghai Asian Photovoltaic Industry Forum, the meeting attracted a large number of more than twenty countries and regions from more than 160 companies and industry bodies involved in the exhibition and related activities.
Focus One:
polysilicon supply gap gradually eased, the price subsequently fell significantly in 2008, solar-grade polysilicon explosive growth occurred, of which China is the main supporting force. In 2007 China's polysilicon production of 1,100 tons of silicon materials in 2008 production exceeded 4,100 tons, of which 11 enterprises have output. Shortage of upstream raw materials eased, the price gradually return to rational polysilicon industry chain structure more reasonable.
Focus II: new darling of the thin film battery
concern, the market prospects rise of membrane technology in recent years a new type of solar cell technology, but an alarming rate grew. 2005 TF PV market share of the total PV of less than 5% in 2008, has reached 14.4% by 2015 is expected to rise to about 30%.
Focus III: Chinese enterprises to rapidly growing Chinese mainland enterprises, market share increased gradually
China, especially solar energy enterprises in mainland China's rise, greatly affected the world-wide competition. Market share from the global situation, the Chinese company's market share has been considerable. The world's top 25 PV companies, China accounted for 8, the total output of 1821MW, Taiwan accounted for three total output 723.5MW, both total output accounts for 17% of the world photovoltaic industry.
investment rating is currently the industry's price-earnings ratio of about 117.52 times, and its valuation is much higher than the market average.
But given the whole industry is growing fast now, to determine future development trends and national policy support, we offer the industry a
Risk Warning
1, China's exports are highly dependent on a few countries.
2, polysilicon production capacity to gradually release the industry, so that the industry is facing greater pressure on the price war.
Construction Machinery: recovery of manufacturing exports trilogy infrastructure recommended 3 stocks (Everbright Securities Qiu Shiliang)
on maintaining an Heavy Industries Stock in the next 6 months to 20 times gradually to 09 transactions, 09 in the fourth quarter of the market will begin to pay attention 10 years of performance and growth. Maintain the industry Maintenance of Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Xugongkeji
4 17 will release the first quarter of macroeconomic data, expected in March FAI growth rate will exceed 25% (transmission 28%). FAI growth in first quarter will exceed 25%. Optimistic than we had forecast, investment in new projects continued high growth, credit growth is expected to significantly predict such speculation is expected to continue throughout the year than our optimistic projections.
construction machinery industry recovery trilogy: high growth infrastructure, manufacturing recovery,Discount UGG boots, exports to stabilize upstream
1,08 We think that the Government dated December infrastructure investment in fixed assets investment will stimulate high-growth, 1-3 basic authentication data in the month of our judgments.
2, PMI index for 4 months of recovery, while in March rose to above the threshold of economic expansion, indicating recovery in the manufacturing sector, manufacturing growth rate of investment took the second stick. Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data show that in March the country's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 52.4%, high 3.4 percent last month. The index from December 2008 for 4 consecutive months since rebounded, rising to March this year, economic contraction and expansion marks the critical point of the top 50%. PMI index is one of the leading index macro. National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing joint investigation of the PMI index of around 730 samples, covering 31 provinces in 30 manufacturing industries.
3, the global economy will be in 09 or 10 years the second half of the first half of modest recovery. The world's major economies to take expansionary fiscal policy and monetary policy of quantitative easing, will gradually bring the world economy out of the mire, to stabilize the global economy is expected to rise.
If the above three steps occur simultaneously, then there will be revenue growth, gross margin, sales margin to improve the situation simultaneously, the industry raised rating will be looking to buy, the more the subject will be raised ratings We patiently wait for the data uncertain.
3 月 excavator chain growth, year on year decline, Sany Heavy Machinery positive growth
3 月 excavators up 58% qoq increase, but a negative growth of -21% year on year; the first quarter of negative growth excavator -12% (1-2 months are up 3%). From the year data, Sany Heavy Industry is the only positive growth of the company, an increase of 84%. The first quarter, the cumulative growth of 118% of Trinity, up 46% Komatsu, Doosan fell by 19%. From market share, increase market share Sany Heavy Industry to 6.3%, Doosan, Komatsu's market share rose to 17.2% and 16.4%, leading market share of foreign capital does not fall but rise, and its market share in domestic enterprises have more than 2008 declined.
an international competitive advantage and long-term optimistic about China's construction machinery industry
stage of economic development, international competitive edge, micro-enterprise perspective, construction machinery the next 5-10 years a great growth potential.
Highway: high dividend and valuation of depression 5 shares recommended industry performance and stability (Industrial Securities Wang Shuang)
Investment Highlights
high dividends. Highway industry performance is relatively stable, dividend payout rate, Ninghugaosu, modern investment, Anhui Expressway and other companies more than 4% dividend yield, dividend payout ratio of companies more than 50%, a better investment value.
highways and transportation industry relative valuation of the broader market lower. PE is only 17 times the current highway, and all the CSI 300 A shares and 21 times respectively, and 19 times; relative to the delivery of other sections, the highway is lower than the airport, ports and railways and other infrastructure, just higher than the shipping However, performance may drop shipping in 2009 by a big margin, but the overall decline was expected road less than 10%.
a quarterly increase. 2008 by the snow and fresh agricultural products speed and Anhui Expressway has also increased.
investment advice: The two aspects of performance bonus increase, we are optimistic about modern investment, Guangdong Provincial Expressway Jiangxi, Anhui and Jiangsu Expressway through high-speed; from the assets brought into the epitaxial growth and valuation, we prefer Shandong Expressway .
Risk Tip: economic downturn,UGG boots cheap, resulting in goods fell by more than expected; broader market valuation of the whole center down.
non-ferrous metals: copper imports in March a substantial increase consumer optimism (China Merchants Securities Zhao)
basic metal profile: gratifying trend last week non-ferrous metals, lead the largest gain, up 7.02%; copper, Aluminium rose front, were up 5.06% and 3.7%, nickel, zinc rose slightly. Tin is the only non-ferrous metals fell, mainly due to inventory growth and output growth suppression.
-than-expected March, imports of copper, copper consumption is expected to be optimistic: March imports of 375,000 tons of copper and copper products, estimated at 30 million tons of refined copper imports, compared with March up 11% qoq, an increase of 137 %! The main reasons are:
First State Reserve early resumption of copper in LME copper in the import price points 2,3,4 months after another to Hong Kong. Second, the ratio of Shanghai and London high, traders and increase profits due to imports of imports. Third, lower copper consumption of consumer purchasing active season, but also pulling the signing of orders for imported copper. Market for copper consumption is expected to be improved, copper rebounded to $ 4,500 / ton high, the impact of the SRB collection of copper in dilute, more refined embodiment of the peak season for consumer driven purchases. The second quarter we are optimistic about consumption of refined copper, copper is still expected to increase the power of inertia.
Nickel inventories and lower demand by pressing, difficult to pick up: the latest data show that in 2008 global nickel market excess supply 13 million tons, in January 2009 surplus of global nickel supply city of 15,100 tons, is still a serious oversupply restricting the nickel price. For the nickel market, the second quarter, the boom of the stainless steel industry will be to determine the most critical factor in nickel prices. Stainless steel market is still in the doldrums, stainless steel plant after the recent price increases, the performance of downstream users bleak, unwilling to accept, reflecting the weak downstream demand. Nickel inventories and lower demand by pressing, short-term clunker.
lead by the raw materials and downstream demand-pull tension: March vehicle sales in China reached 1.1098 million, a record high monthly sales, monthly production reached 1,095,400 vehicles, but also refresh the record highs; 1-3 months car sales 2,678,800, an increase of 3.88%. Warming makes the auto industry back the market demand for lead-acid batteries is expected to increase, although the lead and zinc prices also rose, but most are still in shutdown state and Zinc Mine, because the profit did not justify the current mines resume production, so the domestic lead-zinc concentrate remains tense. Demand-pull tension and lower raw materials, lead prices rebounded sharply.
Aviation Airport: earnings inflection point will appear prudent recommended 7 stock holdings Airlines (Guotai Junan Sun Liping Wu Li)
1. aviation industry: profitability inflection point occurs, overweight Airlines
< br> recovery in demand in the domestic market, fuel costs dropped significantly, the context of civil aviation construction fund return, in 2009 Air China, China Southern, Hainan Airlines and other major airlines will be profitable. Maintenance of the aviation industry overweight rating. In individual stocks, we continue to recommend Air China and China Southern Airlines, and join us in the recommended portfolio had a recent survey of Hainan Airlines.
1.4.1.
Air China income structure, passenger revenue accounted for 85%, accounting for 15% of the cargo; passenger service composition, domestic flights passenger turnover accounted for 60% of the international routes accounting for 40%.
fuel hedging contracts without considering the changes in fair value, the company expects earnings per share of 08-10 years were -0.78 yuan, 0.16 yuan and 0.21 yuan, giving the overweight rating.
1.4.2. Southern Airlines China Southern Airlines
income structure, passenger revenue accounted for 92%, accounting for 8% of the cargo; route structure, the proportion of domestic routes 87% of passenger turnover, accounting for international routes than only 13%.
line with our forecast of net assets, calculated by the end of 2008, China Southern Airlines PB current level of 2.8 times, 3.7 times lower than the PB Air level.
the company expects earnings per share of 08-10 years were -0.58 yuan, 0.20 yuan and 0.20 yuan, giving the overweight rating.
1.4.3.
Hainan Airlines Hainan Airlines, Xinhua Airlines AG Holding AG, the main (60% stake), Chang'an Airlines (87% stake), Shanxi Airlines (97% equity .) In Hainan, Beijing, Xi'an, Taiyuan airport market share was 50%, 10%, 20% and 20%.
line with our forecast of net assets per share calculated by the end of 2008, the company now PB2.8 times, 3.7 times lower than the PB Air level.
expects annual earnings per share -0.31 08-10 yuan, 0.19 yuan and 0.13 yuan, giving the overweight rating.
2. Airport: steady growth in the defensive performance of varieties
maintain Xiamen Airport, Baiyun Airport, Shenzhen Airport, Shanghai Airport cautious overweight rating. Shanghai Airport in the plate in the higher valuation, but if the international economy began to improve, the maximum benefit from Shanghai Airport.
Xiamen Airport: Cautious holdings
1, Xiamen Airport accounted for 60% of business travelers, tourists accounted for 15% of domestic routes, passenger demand to benefit from recovery in the domestic market, predicted that the annual passenger throughput growth rate of around 10%.
2, the economic downturn relatively large impact on the cargo terminal, cargo terminal in 2009 estimated profits of about 20% -30% drop in profits as the proportion of small cargo terminal, has little effect on the company's overall performance.
3,08 started the second half of the terminal shops tender every four years, the effect of base rent increase from the beginning to show in September 2008, rental income will show a double-digit annual growth in 08-09 .
4, the acquisition of assets from the Group of 08 flight zone and the second half of the table, thickening of the 2009 earnings per share of 0.10 yuan.
5, to benefit from the economic and West of the west side of building.
6, 08-10 years, the company expects EPS were 0.64,0.80 and 0.88 yuan, 09 times the dynamic PE19.
Baiyun Airport: cautious holdings
1, 85% of the white visitors from the domestic routes in the domestic market remains the context of rapid growth, expected annual passenger throughput of Baiyun growth rate of about 8%.
2, FEDEX Asia-Pacific transshipment center into operation on February 6, Baiyun Airport cargo operations into a new period of development, the early operation of 136 cargo flights per week out of Baiyun Airport, is expected to add landing fees and cargo security thickening in 2009 revenue EPS 0.02 yuan.
3,09-10 Baiyun Airport expansion concentrated on the East-West Corridor and the center three fingers cargo terminal, the first large-scale Phase II expansion project to start after 2011, depreciation of the next two years the company added pressure of not large.
4, 09-11 assumption enjoyed the company into the airport construction fee remained at about 48%, 09-11 years expected EPS were 0.47 yuan, 0.54 yuan and 0.65 yuan, 09 times the dynamic PE19 .
Shenzhen Airport: cautious holdings
1, the proportion of the company 95% of domestic passenger flights, benefit from the recovery of the domestic passenger market demand for passenger throughput, 1-February cumulative growth rate of 13.7%, 09 results mainly from the growth in domestic passenger market recovery.
2, the external economic downturn, 2009 is still facing downside risks to the cargo business.
3, advertising the introduction of jet fuel in the media Skyflying contract termination, since the new contract prices, expected ad revenue growth will fall to about 15%.
4,UGG bailey button, driven by the local government, the Shenzhen airport and Hong Kong airport business co-operation with the option is expected to make a breakthrough, long-term benefit to enhance the company management level, but short on performance enhancing effect is limited.
5, limited by the throughput capacity of new facilities put into operation before the end of 2011 the company's growth is relatively slow. 09-10 years, the company expects EPS were 0.31 yuan, 0.33 yuan and 0.36 yuan, 09 times the dynamic PE20.
Shanghai Airport: cautious holdings
1, Pudong Airport, the proportion of 50% of passengers on international routes, traffic on international routes fell by 1-3 months of growth in passenger throughput by 2.1%, in the listing the slowest of the airport. However, recovery in passenger demand in the domestic routes the context of the monthly growth rate of passenger traffic was picking up, but growth is slow to completely get rid of the external economic situation better to wait.
2, T2 terminal and runway 3 08 2 quarter from the depreciation, the depreciation year on year in Q1 2009 will increase by about 1.5 billion, is the low growth in annual results. 2 quarter, the demand has picked up and the low base in 2008 based on the volume of business, performance will improve.
3, supporting the project as the World Expo, Hongqiao Airport expansion project for 10 years a quarter of test run. Hongqiao expanded to address the issue of competition with the industry, is expected in 2009 Hongqiao asset injection will achieve a breakthrough. But the thickening rate depends on the performance assessment of Hongqiao land prices, and whether expansion of a one-time injection.
4, 09-11 years, the company expects EPS was 0.47 yuan, 0.55 yuan and 0.64 yuan, 2009 Dynamic PE 30 times, maintain prudent overweight rating.
(article from the Internet, are Zhuantie nature, does not mean my point of view, for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. investors pursuant to operate your own risk.)
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